Wednesday, February 4, 2009

The Death of the Exurbs

What are the Exurbs? It is development outside of the suburbs. It's so far out that you can't even call it the suburbs. That's pretty far out. You might wonder what kind of idiot would buy a house so far outside the city that it takes them over an hour to get to work, or what kind of developer would spend millions developing a subdivision when there is nothing even remotely near by. Some people like the rural life style? that cant be the case, because a lot of this development in created in subdivisions with lots of one acre or less. More than likely it is the cost of land which creates the cheapest housing you can find. But with the rising cost of fuel, car maintenance, and car replacement (basically your per mile cost) it just doesn't make sense to be out in the boonies any more. A recent Business Week article stated that the recent housing crisis is hurting new homes, those built on the periphery of the city, the most. Some of these new homes have never even been lived in yet. They are just sitting there rotting away. Vacancy rates for these homes are several times greater than their urban counter parts. I would also add that Springfield, and inner city urban neighborhood, is still building homes. There's one going up right next to me as I am writing this. Folks, the era of cheap energy and transportation is over forever. As soon as the economies of the world find their rhythm again, gas prices will start again their march up. The only thing that stopped $5 a gallon gas is the world economy. So go ahead, keep developing in the exurbs. Ignore the reality of transportation costs. Ignore the massive existing unsold product out there in the suburbs. And if you buy out there, you get what you deserve: poor appreciation, or maybe even negative equity. If you ever have to move and energy prices do what everybody says they will do, you will likely end up walking away from the mortgage (sorry).

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